Bluffton Tigers Baseball

3-0 count issue

Due to yesterday's incident towards the end of the game, I have decided to explain why we will ALWAYS take on a 3-0 pitch, unless I personally come up to you to talk about it during your at-bat. 

Why we do it:

Because if you play the odds (which I do) you have a MUCH better chance of walking when you have a 3-0 count, and than stealing 2nd...than hitting a double for example.  What is the difference between you hitting a huge shot for a double and walking, than stealing....nothing.  Both result on you standing on 2nd base.  Also, a single is the same as a walk...both on 1st base.

Breaking down the hitting numbers:

Since I have been coach here, we have had 1071 AB's.  170 of them have been walks (15.9%) and 70 doubles (6.5%).   In terms of hitting a homerun on that "perfect" 3-0 pitch...we've had 7 (.65%).

Breaking down the stealing numbers:

While coaching here, we have attempted to steal 199 times...been caught 12...and most of those were guys getting picked off.  When we steal, we have a 93.9% chance of making it. 

Point Being:

By taking our chances of a walk even with a 0-0 count, and than multiplying that number by our steal percentage...we get this.  Remember, this doesn't include data from a 3-0 count as I don't have it...this is data from a 0-0 count so with a 3-0 count, your chance of walking is WAY higher than if it were a 0-0 count.   Still though, the percentages are in our favor.

Chance of walking*Chance of safe steal= 15.9%*93.9%= 14.9%

Chance of a double= 6.5%

Conclusion:

We have over twice the chance of getting on second by walking and stealing as opposed to hitting a double...and on a 3-0 count that chance of walking is probably tripled if not more.  So to do what is best for the team....you WILL take every 3-0 pitch.